Mervyn King

Desde hace décadas, el paradigma predominante en el mundo de la política, las finanzas o la economía reduce la incertidumbre a meros cálculos probabilísticos. El riesgo es habitualmente una cifra que se puede calcular, y las posibilidades de que un suceso tenga lugar deben medirse con ecuaciones o estadisticas. El problema es que nada de esto es cierto. Como hemos aprendido en los ultimos años, con sucesos impredecibles (de la crisis financiera de 2007 a la pandemia del Covid), vivimos en un estado de constante "Incertidumbre Radical". Esta obra de Mervyn King y John Kay nos recuerda que nuestro entorno no es modelizable. Ni lo que pasara mañana se puede anticipar con una hoja de calculo.En el corazon de "Incertidumbre Radical" yace una distincion fundamental entre dos tipos de incertidumbre: la "resoluble" y la "radical". La primera se refiere a eventos repetibles y predecibles, como el lanzamiento de una moneda. En el segundo grupo se engloban la mayoria de las decisiones criticas en la vida desde si invertir o no en una empresa a la estrategia geopolitica de un pais. Nos encontramos ante eventos cuyos eterminantes son tan complejos e imprevisibles que no permiten que les asignemos probabilidades creibles.En este contexto, los autores critican la falsa precision de los modelos economicos modernos, herederos de la teoria de juegos y de la hipotesis del mercado eficiente, que pretenden cuantificar lo incuantificable y generar una ilusion de control. Kay y King reivindican una toma de decisiones mucho mas humana: imprecisa, cambiante, que usa la intuicion en un proceso de prueba y error, aparentemente menos cientifico, pero mucho mas eficiente en el fondo. "Una guia elegante y cuidadosa para reflexionar sobre la economia, especialmente en tiempos de incertidumbre" - The New York Times Book Review"Pocas veces la publicacion de un libro es tan oportuna" - The Wall Street Journal"En este libro, profundo y practico, Kay y King admiten lo obvio, que en ambitos cruciales no sabemos, no sabremos y no podremos saber lo que esta pasando; y muestra, sin embargo, como conservar nuestra capacidad para actuar" - Paul Romer, premio Nobel de Economia 2018"John Kay y Mervyn King quieren que mas gente comprenda la antigua distincion entre riesgo e incertidumbre, olvidada por una generacion de economistas" - Niall Ferguson"Muchos libros hacen que el lector este mejor informado. Este es uno de los pocos que hace que el lector sea mucho mas sabio. Vivaras de forma diferente y mejor despues de comprender las lecciones fundamentales de Kay y King sobre la incertidumbre radical" - Lawrence H. Summers

A fearless and important book The End of Alchemy isn t just an elegant guide to the history of economic ideas It also gives a genuine insider s account Telegraph The past twenty years saw unprecedented growth and stability followed by the worst financial crisis the industrialised world has ever witnessed In the space of little more than a year what had been seen as the age of wisdom was viewed as the age of foolishness Almost overnight belief turned into incredulity Most accounts of the recent crisis focus on the symptoms and not the underlying causes of what went wrong But those events vivid though they remain in our memories comprised only the latest in a long series of financial crises since our present system of commerce became the cornerstone of modern capitalism Alchemy explains why ultimately this was and remains a crisis not of banking even if we need to reform the banking system nor of policy making even if mistakes were made but of ideas In this refreshing and vitally important book former governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King an actor in this drama proposes revolutionary new concepts to answer the central question are money and banking a form of Alchemy or are they the Achilles heel of a modern capitalist economy

A fearless and important book . . . The End of Alchemy isnt just an elegant guide to the history of economic ideas. It also gives a genuine insiders accountTelegraphThe past twenty years saw unprecedented growth and stability followed by the worst financial crisis the industrialised world has ever witnessed. In the space of little more than a year what had been seen as the age of wisdom was viewed as the age of foolishness. Almost overnight, belief turned into incredulity. Most accounts of the recent crisis focus on the symptoms and not the underlying causes of what went wrong. But those events, vivid though they remain in our memories, comprised only the latest in a long series of financial crises since our present system of commerce became the cornerstone of modern capitalism. Alchemy explains why, ultimately, this was and remains a crisis not of banking - even if we need to reform the banking system - nor of policy-making - even if mistakes were made - but of ideas. In this refreshing and vitally important book, former governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King - an actor in this drama - proposes revolutionary new concepts to answer the central question: are money and banking a form of Alchemy or are they the Achilles heel of a modern capitalist economy?

Analizar las causas de las crisis, podremos evitar que vuelva a ocurrirEn los últimos veinte años el mundo desarrollado ha vivido un crecimiento y estabilidad sin precedentes seguido de la peor crisis financiera de la que el mundo industrializado ha sido testigo. Mervyn King se propone analizar en este libro las causas de las crisis, sin las que nunca entenderemos que paso y menos aun podremos evitar que vuelva a ocurrir. Para muchos, el dinero y la banca son los elementos magicos que nos liberaron del sistema feudal. Prometian alquimia financiera. Pero la busqueda del elixir monetario ha traido el desastre economico. King se pregunta entonces, ¿porque son el dinero y los bancos los alquimistas de la economia de mercado si son tambien su talon de Aquiles?

A brilliant new bookDaily TelegraphWell written . . . and often entertainingThe TimesA sparkling analysisProspectWhen uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions?We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives.This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today.Tightly argued, provocative and written with wit and flair, Radical Uncertainty is at once an exploration of the limits of numbers and a celebration of human instinct and wisdom.